Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert and his team created an online study involving 19 000 people to better understand how well they were able to predict the extent to which they would change in the future. Since many of the major decisions we make will have long lasting consequences, this study seeks to better understand how people make predictions about their future selves.
Although teenagers are notoriously bad at envisioning their future selves ("Of course I'll always want this butterfly tattoo!"), Gilbert says he was surprised that even older people seem to underestimate how much they'll change. For example, 68-year-olds reported modest personality changes in the previous decade, but 58-year-olds predicted very little, if any, change in the coming decade, even though their survey answers indicated that they had changed considerably since they were 48. Several follow-up experiments suggested that these differences reflect errors in predicting the future rather than errors in remembering the past. Gilbert and colleagues call this effect "the end of history illusion," because it suggests that people believe, consciously or not, that the present marks the point at which they've finally stopped changing.
In additional surveys, the researchers found that people similarly underestimate changes in their personal values (things like success and security) and preferences (like their favorite band and best friend). "What these data suggest, and what scads of other data from our lab and others suggest, is that people really aren't very good at knowing who they're going to be and hence what they're going to want a decade from now," Gilbert says.
The new proposal — part of the psychiatric association’s effort of many years to update its influential diagnostic manual — is intended to clarify these diagnoses and better integrate them into clinical practice, to extend and improve treatment. But the effort has run into so much opposition that it will probably be relegated to the back of the manual, if it’s allowed in at all.
New diagnoses in psychiatry are more dangerous than new drugs because they influence whether or not millions of people are placed on drugs- often by primary care doctors after brief visits. Before their introduction, new diagnoses deserve the same level of attention to safety that we devote to new drugs. APA is not competent to do this.
A detailed monitoring the revisions of both the DSM and ICD can be found at Dx Revision Watch.
This site has been monitoring the revision processes towards DSM-5 and ICD-11, generally, since the beginning of 2010 and endeavours to provide timely updates and content of interest to consumer groups and professionals who are stakeholders in these classification systems.
A study published today in Nature Neuroscience contributes to understanding the specific ways in which exposure to early stress affects the connectivity of the maturing brain.
“This is one of the first demonstrations that early stress seems to have an impact on the the way this regulatory circuitry is set up in late adolescence,” says Richard Davidson, a neuroscientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and one of the leaders of the study.
The study showed that 18-year-old girls who had had high cortisol levels at age 4 have weak connectivity between the amygdala, a deep nub of the brain known for processing fear and emotions, and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an outer region involved in curbing the amygdala’s stress response.
South Africans now have their first fact checking organisation, in the mold of similar initiatives in the US and Europe.
From their website:
Africa Check is an independent, non-partisan organisation which assesses claims made in the public arena using journalistic skills and evidence drawn from the latest online tools, readers, public sources and experts, sorting fact from fiction and publishing the results.
Their team includes the science writer and physician, Ben Goldacre, who we have featured in a previous post.
"Coauthor Richard Aslin said that their findings remind us about how complex human behavior is. "This study is an example of both nature and nurture playing a role," he says. "We know that to some extent, temperament is clearly inherited, because infants differ in their behaviors from birth. But this experiment provides robust evidence that young children's actions are also based on rational decisions about their environment."
Often referred to as the bible of psychiatry, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Psychiatry (DSM) will be published in its fifth edition in May next year, once again transforming the way in which mental illness is defined. In this series of five short essays Paul Fitzgerald takes a closer look into the DSM providing a basic introduction to some of the issues.
Psychiatric research indicates that things are more complicated than the manual leads us to believe. In reality, many diagnostic categories overlap. Over the years, many new diagnostic categories have been proposed. As a consequence, many individuals now fit several diagnostic labels. Should their different disorders all be treated separately, or at the same time?
Children often think they're hiding when covering their eyes. Researchers at the University of Cambridge attempt to find out why. Be sure to read the rest - it's really interesting.
Now things get a little complicated. In both studies so far, when the children thought they were invisible by virtue of their eyes being covered, they nonetheless agreed that their head and their body were visible. They seemed to be making a distinction between their "self" that was hidden, and their body, which was still visible. Taken together with the fact that it was the concealment of the eyes that seemed to be the crucial factor for feeling hidden, the researchers wondered if their invisibility beliefs were based around the idea that there must be eye contact between two people - a meeting of gazes - for them to see each other (or at least, to see their "selves").
Here is a list of courses run by Coursera which may be of interest to some of you. For those of you who don't know, Coursera is a new elearning initiative involving a number of American Universities offering high quality introductory courses in a number of fascinating subjects.
In this popular test, several kids wrestle with waiting to eat a marshmallow in hopes of a bigger prize. This video is a good illustration of temptation and the hope in future rewards. This experiment is based on many previous and similar scientific tests.
Karen Franklin reports on a soon to be published study in Law and Human Behaviour, the first of its kind in the US, which examined levels of agreement among independent forensic evaluators in routine legal practice. The study found a surprisingly low level of agreement between evaluators who looked at 483 evaluation reports involving 165 criminal defendants. Read the full post: Sanity opinions show "poor" reliability, study finds
An audio interview with Oliver Burkeman and Jules Evans on the upside of pessimism.
For Burkeman, a contented life must embrace uncertainty and get friendly with failure. But could the active pursuit of happiness be part of the problem? Evans takes a more can-do approach, looking back to the wisdom of ancient Greek philosophers and tracking it through to the Cognitive Behaviour Therapy of today, which helped him to escape depression in his early 20s.
Hear the interview.
-The New York Times report on a recent paper in PLOS which suggest that as many as 1 in 8 of those who survive a heart attack will go on to develop post traumatic stress disorder. Read more: Heart Attack Survivors May Develop P.T.S.D.
While much has been written recently about the dangers of internet use, new research seems to suggest a potential role for social media in assisting with the diagnosis of mental disorders. Last week, The Guardian reported on a study done at the University of Leeds where researchers found an association between the frequency and pattern of internet use and depression, and this week theNeurocritic has written an interesting post about how a dramatic increase in texting (not to be confused with hypertexting of course) is a modern version of hypergraphia, which can be a sign for a manic episode.
And certainly the evidence for manic/hypomanic hypergraphia has been plainly obvious for as long as the internet has existed. There are thousands of bipolar bloggers and Tweeters and Facebook users and online journalers before that. Unlike PubMed, Google Blog Search returns 3,670 hits for bipolar hypergraphia and 4,230 hits for manic hypergraphia. And those are just the posts that use the term hypergraphia. One could envision a study on quantitative changes in written output on Twitter or blogs as a possible sign of bipolar cycling.
This article from the Guardian reports on the plight of an increasing number of the elderly plagued by body-image related anxiety.
Even those who are relatively fit and healthy in later years struggled with the idea that they no longer conformed to a youthful ideal, said Rumsey, who recently co-wrote The Oxford Handbook of the Psychology of Appearance. "It is a myth that older people don't care what they look like: the 'normal' signs of ageing can prove very depressing and many people find it hard to see themselves in a positive light when they see a wrinkled face and a sagging body looking back in the mirror. We are now at a point where there is a social stigma around the effects of the natural ageing process, and this can lead to very low self-esteem and the classic signs of body dysmorphic disorder."
(Image: All rights reserved by firstname.lastname@example.org)
In his latest post, blogger Neuroskeptic critiques a recent challenge to the "immaturity hypothesis" and points to what may be a common misdiagnosis of ADHD in younger children, who seem relatively immature to their older classmates in the same grade. Earlier this year, a Canadian study of ADHD rates in almost a million children found that children born later in the year were more likely to be diagnosed with ADHD.
This is strong support for the "immaturity hypothesis" - the idea that some children get a diagnosis of ADHD because they're younger than their classmates at school, and their relative immaturity is wrongly ascribed to an illness.
In an excellent blog post on the Nature website, Ed Yong discusses the problem of replication in psychology and the challenges facing those who try to publish negative findings.
Positive results in psychology can behave like rumours: easy to release but hard to dispel. They dominate most journals, which strive to present new, exciting research. Meanwhile, attempts to replicate those studies, especially when the findings are negative, go unpublished, languishing in personal file drawers or circulating in conversations around the water cooler. “There are some experiments that everyone knows don't replicate, but this knowledge doesn't get into the literature,” says Wagenmakers. The publication barrier can be chilling, he adds. “I've seen students spending their entire PhD period trying to replicate a phenomenon, failing, and quitting academia because they had nothing to show for their time.”
A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, links cortisol levels during early pregnancy with increased amygdala volume and emotional problems in children. The study followed 65 mother-child dyads over a 7 year period.
The current findings represent, to the best of our knowledge, the first report linking maternal stress hormone levels in human pregnancy with subsequent child amygdala volume and affect. The results underscore the importance of the intrauterine environment and suggest the origins of neuropsychiatric disorders may have their foundations early in life.
The full text of the paper is available in the link below.
Social connection is such a basic feature of human experience that when we are deprived of it, we suffer. Many languages have expressions—such as “hurt feelings”—that compare the pain of social rejection to the pain of physical injury.
There is a macabre brilliance to the machine in Jeff Lichtman's laboratory at Harvard University that is worthy of a Wallace and Gromit film. In one end goes brain. Out the other comes sliced brain, courtesy of an automated arm that wields a diamond knife. The slivers of tissue drop one after another on to a conveyor belt that zips along with the merry whirr of a cine projector.
Lichtman's machine is an automated tape-collecting lathe ultramicrotome (Atlum), which, according to the neuroscientist, is the tool of choice for this line of work. It produces long strips of sticky tape with brain slices attached, all ready to be photographed through a powerful electron microscope.
When these pictures are combined into 3D images, they reveal the inner wiring of the organ, a tangled mass of nervous spaghetti. The research by Lichtman and his co-workers has a goal in mind that is so ambitious it is almost unthinkable.
Every day, millions of single adults, worldwide, visit an online dating site. Many are lucky, finding life-long love or at least some exciting escapades. Others are not so lucky. The industry—eHarmony, Match, OkCupid, and a thousand other online dating sites—wants singles and the general public to believe that seeking a partner through their site is not just an alternative way to traditional venues for finding a partner, but a superior way. Is it?
With our colleagues Paul Eastwick, Benjamin Karney, and Harry Reis, we recently published a book-length article in the journal Psychological Science in the Public Interest that examines this question and evaluates online dating from a scientific perspective. One of our conclusions is that the advent and popularity of online dating are terrific developments for singles, especially insofar as they allow singles to meet potential partners they otherwise wouldn’t have met. We also conclude, however, that online dating is not better than conventional offline dating in most respects, and that it is worse is some respects.
A recent article in the journal Neuron analysed how neuroscience stories are typically presented by major UK newspapers. Although diplomatically stated in the paper, the findings do not inspire confidence. To summarise, it seems that when neuroscience findings are covered by the mainstream press, they're invariably interpreted in questionable ways in order to support political ideology or predetermined views and theories, up to and including discriminatory stereotypes - for example about homosexuals.
While newspaper stories about neuroscience research usually have some sort of appreciable logic, they typically end up with conclusions or predictions that are well beyond the focus of the original study, and bear little or no resemblance to a scientific critique. (Ironically, the most common category used in what seemed to be an ever increasing flow of misinformation was "Brain optimisation".)
The APA is now working on the fifth version of the hefty tome, slated for publication in May 2013. Because the DSM-IV was largely similar to its predecessor, the DSM-5 embodies the first substantial change to psychiatric diagnosis in more than 30 years. It introduces guidelines for rating the severity of symptoms that are expected to make diagnoses more precise and to provide a new way to track improvement. The DSM framers are also scrapping certain disorders entirely, such as Asperger’s syndrome, and adding brand-new ones, including binge eating and addiction to gambling.
In the past the APA has received harsh criticism for not making its revision process transparent. In 2010 the association debuted a draft of the new manual on its Web site for public comment. “That’s never been done before,” says psychiatrist Darrel Regier, vice chair of the DSM-5 Task Force and formerly at the National Institute of Mental Health. The volume of the response surprised even the framers: 50 million hits from about 500,000 individuals and more than 10,000 comments so far.
Dr. Spelke is a pioneer in the use of the infant gaze as a key to the infant mind — that is, identifying the inherent expectations of babies as young as a week or two by measuring how long they stare at a scene in which those presumptions are upended or unmet. “More than any scientist I know, Liz combines theoretical acumen with experimental genius,” Dr. Carey said. Nancy Kanwisher, a neuroscientist at M.I.T., put it this way: “Liz developed the infant gaze idea into a powerful experimental paradigm that radically changed our view of infant cognition.”
Here, according to the Spelke lab, are some of the things that babies know, generally before the age of 1:
They know what an object is: a discrete physical unit in which all sides move roughly as one, and with some independence from other objects.
Bipolar disorder usually strikes between the ages of 15 and 25, and is extremely rare in preteens, according to a major study: Age at onset versus family history and clinical outcomes in 1,665 international bipolar-I disorder patients
The findings are old hat. It's long been known that manic-depression most often begins around the age of 20, give or take a few years. Onset in later life is less common while earlier onset is very unusual.
The unusual set-up at the University of Minnesota's Institute of Child Development in Minneapolis is designed to look for signs of behavioural disorders. The plan is to find out if Microsoft's gaming sensor, combined with computer-vision algorithms trained to detect behavioural abnormalities, can be used to automate the early diagnosis of autism.
Diagnosing an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in young children is tricky, but the earlier a child can begin speech therapy and get help learning social and communication skills, the better. Many different symptoms may suggest a child has an ASD, but they are subtle. It usually takes an experienced doctor to spot the signs by analysing video footage of the child playing - a costly and time-consuming process.
Nowadays it’s increasingly clear that pediatricians, obstetrician-gynecologists and internists must be more alert. Research into postnatal depression in particular has underscored the importance of checking up on parents’ mental health in the first months of a baby’s life.